Share price
EST
~$1.8–2.0
as of 2026-09-18
EST from secondary quote aggregators (e.g. ~$1.95 close Sep 18; ~$1.77 quoted Sep 24). Not a live feed — verify on NASDAQ.
NASDAQ: MRLN · Independent · Not affiliated
Merlin Brief tracks Merlin Pilot as a process story: aircraft-agnostic autonomy software, a USSOCOM C-130J IDIQ path, dual-track civil certification gates, and whether cash runway outlasts dilution and program risk.
Key figures
Share price and market cap refresh from a delayed quote on page load (Yahoo chart API via Worker). Other chips stay static / sourced / EST. Not a trading terminal.
Market cap
EST
~$180M
as of 2026-09-24
EST from secondary (~$179M cited). Depends on share count × spot; not filing-stamped.
Enterprise value
EST
— EST
as of —
Leave blank until Greg stamps price + cash + debt together
Cash + STI
Sourced
$183.9M
as of 2026-06-30
Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments; no debt reported at Q2 print
Net cash / (debt)
Sourced
~$183.9M net cash
as of 2026-06-30
Company reported no debt at Jun 30, 2026
Runway
EST
Through FY2028 (co. framing) / ~18–24 mo EST
as of 2026-06-30
Company commentary cites funding into FY2028. Rough EST from Q2 Adj. EBITDA loss ~$27.8M and ops cash use ~$27.3M vs $183.9M cash — not a formal model.
Shares outstanding
Sourced
100,592,160
as of 2026-06-30
Issued and outstanding per Q2 balance sheet excerpt
Backlog / IDIQ
Sourced
USSOCOM C-130J IDIQ ceiling ~$105M
as of 2024-06-11
Ceiling / IDIQ authority — not the same as funded backlog or recognized revenue. Company also cites $100M+ total IDIQ ceiling value.
Trackers
Outbound links to places people watch MRLN. Third-party tools and issuer pages — not endorsements, not our data feeds.
Official
- Nasdaq — MRLN quote Exchange quote page
- Merlin investor relations Issuer IR hub
- Merlin corporate site Product / company site
- SEC EDGAR — Merlin, Inc. (CIK 2028707) Primary filings
Charts / tape
- Yahoo Finance — MRLN Delayed quote / chart (same family as our load-time proxy)
- TradingView — MRLN Charting terminal (third-party)
- Finviz — MRLN Screener / snapshot (third-party)
News aggregators
- Stock Titan — MRLN overview Wire / news aggregator
- Seeking Alpha — MRLN Third-party research / news hub
Social (noise-prone)
- X search — $MRLN Unverified chatter — treat as noise until primary-sourced
- Company X — @merlinaero Issuer social account (as cited in company materials)
Break conditions & signal vs noise
Falsifiers first — binary certification and runway risk deserve the front of the page.
Break conditions
- Clear Material civil certification failure or multi-quarter delay vs dual-track FAA / NZ CAA path
- Clear Cash runway breach or distressed dilutive raise under adverse terms
- Clear Loss, cancellation, or prolonged stop-work on USSOCOM C-130J / load-bearing defense path
- Clear Adverse FAA / NZ CAA / airworthiness signal that blocks demonstration or cert path
Signal
- Primary filings and IR PRs on certification gates, PDR/CDR, flight-test campaigns
- Cash, burn, share count, and warrant/PIPE dilution math from 10-Q / 8-K
- Funded task orders / IDIQ actions with dates (ceiling ≠ backlog)
- Authority language in issuer disclosures — not third-hand social claims
Noise
- Unverified social / Discord “cert next week” claims
- Single-day ticker spikes without a primary source
- Tip-sheet price targets without a disclosed model
- Conflating IDIQ ceiling with contracted backlog or near-term revenue
Why Merlin
Structural points from public materials — not hype cards.
Aircraft-agnostic software framing
Merlin Pilot is positioned as a single autonomy stack designed to adapt across aircraft types rather than a one-airframe vehicle company — a structural claim that, if proven in cert and integration, can compound across fleets.
Defense path with a named prime program
USSOCOM C-130J IDIQ (company-stated ~$105M ceiling) plus completed PDR (Mar 2026) and CDR (Jun 2026) give a dated military process spine that commercial-only autonomy stories often lack.
Certification as moat and binary risk
Dual-track civil work (FAA and New Zealand CAA, per board PR) is both the potential barrier to entry and the load-bearing falsifier — process progress matters more than narrative volume.
Existing-fleet retrofit vs greenfield vehicles
Company framing emphasizes extending capabilities of aircraft already in operation (e.g. C-130J) rather than waiting on a new airframe — relevant for defense mission economics and near-term integration risk.
Product / platform map
Not a geo map. Cards only — drawn from issuer public materials.
Platform
Merlin Pilot
AI-powered autonomous flight system framed as an aircraft-agnostic “operating system of record” for autonomy — takeoff to touchdown, with or without a human crew, per issuer description.
Aircraft / integration
C-130J Super Hercules
Primary disclosed defense integration focus under USSOCOM IDIQ — reduced aircrew / autonomy demonstration path.
Broader fixed-wing (scoped)
Issuer materials reference pathways across broader SOF fixed-wing and future civil types — treat expansion claims as forward until named in filings/PRs.
Segments
Defense
USSOCOM C-130J program; majority of early revenue recognized under defense IDIQ task orders (Q2 2026 commentary).
Commercial / civil
Dual-track civil certification framing (FAA + NZ CAA). Earlier-stage relative to the named defense program — watch gates, not slogans.
Sites (issuer-listed)
- Boston, MA (HQ)
- Bedford, MA
- Quonset Point, RI
- Kerikeri, New Zealand
Contracts & backlog
Thin table. IDIQ ceiling ≠ funded backlog ≠ recognized revenue.
| Customer | Vehicle | Focus | Ceiling | Award | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USSOCOM | IDIQ (SBIR authorities) | C-130J reduced-aircrew / autonomy production-ready path | ~$105M | 2024-06-11 | Active |
| Ceiling is not funded backlog. PDR completed ~Mar 2026; CDR completed Jun 4, 2026 — moving into integration / formal test. | |||||
Capital structure & dilution
Elevated above valuation — runway and dilution are load-bearing for a cert-stage name.
Cash & shares
- Cash
- $183.9M cash + STI
- As of
- 2026-06-30
- Shares
- 100,592,160 issued & outstanding
- Debt facilities
- None disclosed at last print
Q2 2026: Adj. EBITDA loss ~$27.8M; cash used in ops ~$27.3M; capex ~$1.6M. Company frames cash as funding operations through fiscal 2028 — treat runway months as EST until Greg publishes a burn bridge.
SPAC combination
- Closed
- 2026-03-16
- Trading
- 2026-03-17 · MRLN
- Gross proceeds
- ~$200M
- Pre-money
- ~$800M
- Sponsor SPAC
- Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. IV (f/k/a BACQ)
Warrants / converts
- May 2026 PIPE warrants: PIPE closed May 1, 2026: 8,000,000 common shares at $10.00 plus warrants exercisable for 4,000,000 shares (strike cited at $6.67 in secondary summaries — confirm in warrant exhibit).
Dilution paths
- SPAC combination closed Mar 16, 2026 — ~$200M gross proceeds; ~$800M pre-money valuation (issuer PR)
- May 1, 2026 PIPE — $80M gross (8M shares @ $10 + 4M warrant shares)
- Outstanding warrants / preferred anti-dilution mechanics referenced in PIPE 8-K — map fully from exhibits before modeling
- Future ATM / follow-on equity if burn persists past cert gates (forward risk, not a prediction)
Catalyst calendar
Centerpiece. Completed / Forward / Resolved Against Us — honesty over theater.
Mar 16, 2026
Completed
SPAC business combination closed; MRLN lists
Combination with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. IV closed; trading as Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) began Mar 17, 2026. Issuer cites ~$200M gross proceeds and ~$800M pre-money.
Mar 2026 (PDR PR)
Completed
USSOCOM C-130J Preliminary Design Review completed
Issuer announced PDR completion for the C-130J autonomy program under the ~$105M IDIQ.
Apr 16, 2026
Completed
Public-company board named
Seven-director board including founder/CEO Matt George as Chair; independent directors include former Secretary of the Navy and former Blue Origin CEO (issuer PR).
May 1, 2026
Completed
Private placement / PIPE closed — $80M gross
8M common shares at $10.00 plus warrants for 4M shares; proceeds framed for platform, regulatory, and contract execution.
Jun 4, 2026
Completed
USSOCOM C-130J Critical Design Review completed
CDR completion advances program from design into aircraft integration and formal test campaign (issuer).
Aug 13, 2026
Completed
Q2 2026 results printed
Revenue $2.2M; GAAP net loss $(58.4)M; cash+STI $183.9M; no debt. Early revenue, heavy R&D / investment phase.
Forward (post-CDR)
Forward
C-130J integration + formal flight-test campaign
Next process evidence after CDR — dated flight hours, demo gates, and funded task-order progress. No invented milestone dates.
Forward (EST timing)
Forward
Civil certification gates (FAA / NZ CAA)
Dual-track civil path referenced in issuer materials. Treat as binary process risk — log only when primary sources date a gate.
Forward
Forward
Next 10-Q / earnings print
Watch cash, burn, share count, warrant activity, and whether defense task-order revenue scales.
Team / governance
Short bios only — cert- and capital-relevant. No “Dream Team” branding.
Matt George
Founder, Chairman & CEO
Founder thesis owner through SPAC listing; public face of certification and defense process narrative.
Ryan Carrithers
CFO & Treasurer
Cash, dilution, and runway reporting — load-bearing for a cert-stage public name.
Timothy Burns
Chief Technology Officer
Autonomy stack / engineering depth behind Merlin Pilot claims.
Krishnan Anand
Chief Program Officer
Program execution on defense integration milestones (PDR/CDR → test).
Dr. Robert H. Smith
Independent Director (ex Blue Origin CEO)
Aerospace operating / cert-adjacent board experience called out in issuer board PR.
Kenneth Braithwaite
Independent Director (former Secretary of the Navy)
Defense / DoD process familiarity relevant to USSOCOM path.
Community DD desk
Independent third-party write-ups we found. Credit + link out only — we do not reproduce their full posts or recommendation language here.
These writers are not affiliated with Merlin Brief. Links are citations, not endorsements, not our recommendation, and not a BUY / HOLD / SELL. Titles belong to their authors. Do your own research.
Crossroads Capital
The Long-Duration Case for Merlin Labs
Long-form thesis piece framing Merlin as a multi-year autonomy / certification process story.
Shawarma Capital
Merlin World / flight demo notes
Two notes: a Merlin World / sim-oriented write-up and a first-person flight-demo frequency piece.
AJL Research
Merlin, Flight Wizard?
Substack overview of Merlin’s autonomy stack and public milestones.
sri795500
Why I Initiated a Position in Merlin
Personal Substack initiation note — author title retained; not our recommendation.
Valuation scenarios (not a rating)
No BUY/HOLD/SELL badge on MVP. Scenarios only, under explicit assumptions. Numbers left EST / qualitative until Greg supplies model frames. Do not invent DCF outputs.
As of 2026-09-27Shared assumptions
- Share count bridge from latest 10-Q plus known PIPE / warrant dilution paths (update when exhibits mapped).
- Cash as of last print ($183.9M at Jun 30, 2026) minus subsequent burn — not yet refreshed for Q3.
- Certification timing and C-130J demo success are binary switches, not smooth growth curves.
- IDIQ ceiling is not revenue; funded task orders and recognized revenue are the demand evidence.
- No single “fair value” is asserted. Frames below are qualitative placeholders pending Greg’s model.
Process fail / distressed
Cert gate fails or multi-quarter slip + cash tightens into a distressed raise. Equity value compresses toward option-on-remaining-cash / scrap-process outcomes. EST — no numeric FV published here.
Assumes break condition on cert or runway triggers.
Bear
Defense path continues slowly; civil cert slips; dilution continues; revenue stays early-stage. Market prices a long option with high burn. EST — numeric ladder TBD by Greg.
Assumes delayed gates, ongoing equity needs.
Base
C-130J integration/test prints dated evidence; cash lasts through disclosed FY2028 framing without distressed terms; civil path advances without a hard fail. Valuation stays process-tied, not peer-multiple theater. EST — awaiting model frames.
Assumes milestones hit with manageable dilution.
Bull
Funded task orders scale, demo/cert evidence compounds, and platform narrative extends beyond one airframe — with dilution contained. EST only; no invented DCF or target price.
Assumes multiple successful gates + capital discipline.
Sources
Dated hyperlinks to primary materials. Out-execute the no-bibliography thesis sites.
- 2026-03-16
- 2026-03-16
- 2024-06-11
- 2026-03-05
- 2026-06-04
- 2026-04-16
- 2026-04-29
- 2026-05-01
- 2026-08-13
- 2026-08-18
- 2026-09-27
- 2026-09-27